Veteran trader Peter Brandt said the 30‑year U.S. Treasury yield has finished its recent pullback and could rise to a range of 6.5% to 7%. He noted that a level below 5% appears unlikely.
Current Yield Levels
On Tuesday the 30‑year yield was around 5.35%, below its October peak of roughly 5.67%.
Recent Movement
Brandt identified a low of 5.22% during the retreat from the October high, marking a bounce of about 0.13 percentage point. The yield had risen from 4.83% at the end of June to above 5.3% by August. An October inflation report that exceeded expectations contributed to the recent move, and comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller added to expectations of a possible rate hike. Traders are now pricing an 84% probability of a December Federal Reserve hike.
Potential Impact
A 30‑year yield near 7% would likely push mortgage rates higher; mortgage rates were around 7% when the 30‑year yield approached 5.5% earlier in the year. Higher yields also put pressure on equity valuations, with analysts flagging sustained 10‑year yields above 5% as a near‑term risk for stocks. Bitcoin was trading near $73,820, down 11.7% over the past 30 days, as bond and oil markets shifted.
Policy Response
The Treasury Department increased long‑dated bond buybacks to $4 billion, but the 30‑year yield remained above 5.3%.
Historical Context
A 7% yield would exceed the 6.15% average for the 30‑year Treasury since 1977, according to Macrotrends data, potentially repricing mortgages, corporate debt and other assets benchmarked to the risk‑free rate.
