Cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket has shifted its odds to give Democrats a 51% chance of sweeping both chambers of Congress in the November midterms. The House market shows Democrats at 89% odds, while the Senate race remains closer at 51% for Democrats.
The movement represents a significant change from earlier assessments. A year ago, Polymarket bettors gave Democrats just 26% odds of a sweep, and that figure stood at 45% one month ago.
Economic Concerns and Approval Ratings
The shift in betting odds reflects declining approval ratings for the current administration. Some surveys place approval as low as 32% to 34%.
Recent polling shows economic concerns weighing on voters. A Financial Times and FocalData poll found that most Americans believe their finances have worsened under current leadership, with a majority of independents agreeing. A Reuters and Ipsos poll found Democrats now lead Republicans on economic management, with voters favoring Democrats 37% to 36%—ending nearly a decade of Republican advantage on the issue.
Gas Prices and Energy Markets
Rising fuel costs have added pressure on the administration. The national average gas price hit a record $4.056 per gallon in August, surpassing the previous high of $3.940 set in 2022. The conflict with Iran has kept energy markets volatile.
The administration has defended high prices as a necessary cost of pushing Iran toward denuclearization. Administration officials have also met with industry executives to explore Venezuelan oil supply options to help cool prices.
With elections set for November 3, the race remains fluid. Polymarket bettors will continue pricing in shifting political and economic conditions in the coming weeks.
