A Polymarket account trading as ImJustKen, linked to the X account of well-known political bettor Domer, made $62,715 when the platform's Texas Senate market resolved against the Republicans, according to platform data. The account bought 249,215 "No" shares on a Republican win at an average of 74.6 cents, roughly $185,900 in total, starting Nov. 2.
Polymarket resolved the market at 07:11 UTC on Wednesday, Nov. 4, after Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton. Talarico will replace Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who lost to Paxton in the primary runoff.
Domer Mocks Musk's Texas Spending
Hours after polls closed, Domer took aim at Elon Musk on X, writing: "A lot of us will do stupid things over the course of our lives. But none of us who will ever do anything stupider than [Musk] spending $250m to try to flip a SAFE BLUE D+12 Senate seat. Lmao."
The "safe blue" label was sarcasm: Texas had not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, and securing statewide office there has long been a mirage for the party.
Three Musk-funded committees spent $249.2 million supporting Paxton or attacking Talarico, Benzinga reported, citing a Black Mesa analysis of federal filings that includes money from other donors as well as Musk's. The Associated Press put Talarico's margin at about 12 points with most votes counted.
Outside groups backing Paxton spent almost three times as much as those supporting Talarico, and Talarico made Musk's involvement a campaign issue. Verasight CEO Ben Leff had told Benzinga before the vote: "Money certainly has an impact. But the Republicans are so underwater that it's hard to make up that gap with money alone."
Musk's post was not a reply to Domer. In a separate post about 40 minutes later, he wrote: "Guess my election-interfering space lasers didn't work this time," with a shrugging emoji after.
The joke refers to comments that Ashley St. Clair—the mother of one of Musk's children—made to filmmaker Alex Gibney for a recent documentary, citing what she claimed Musk said following President Donald Trump's 2024 election win. Musk has threatened to sue Gibney for defamation over the film, which is highly critical of the tech titan.
Polymarket Had Talarico as the Favorite
Polymarket traders had leaned toward Talarico for days. The market priced a Republican win at 28.5% on Oct. 30 and 25.5% as polls opened on Election Day, Nov. 3, implying odds of roughly 71.5% and 74.5% for the Democrat. The Texas Senate winner event drew about $21.8 million in trading volume.
The result was part of a broader Democratic surge that gave the party control of both the Senate and the House. For Domer, buying "No" at nearly 75 cents a share meant a large stake for a roughly 34% return, on an outcome the market already favored.
Domer, whose X bio describes them as "full-time political bettor since 2007," has made about $2.33 million in profit on Polymarket across roughly $500.9 million in trading volume, ranking 65th on the platform's all-time profit board.
Saylor Weighs In on Bitcoin Reserve Vote
Talarico's win also drew comment from Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, who wrote on X that Texas "elected a Democratic senator who voted to create" a bitcoin reserve for his state. As a state representative, Talarico voted for the bill creating Texas' Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which the state House passed 101-42 in May 2025.
"The case for holding bitcoin crosses party lines," Saylor wrote.
