Polymarket traders have assigned a 66% probability that Anthropic will close its first trading day above a $2 trillion market capitalization, according to the platform's IPO closing market cap contract, which has accumulated approximately $744,000 in trading volume.
The odds diverge when examining Anthropic's expected IPO price before shares begin trading. A separate Polymarket contract shows the most likely pricing range at $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, with only 35.3% odds assigned to a $2 trillion or higher pricing.
Nvidia Investment and Fundraising Details
Nvidia is in preliminary talks to become an anchor investor in Anthropic's offering, potentially committing up to $10 billion, according to Reuters. Anthropic is seeking as much as $100 billion at a valuation of approximately $2 trillion. The company has also committed to 1 gigawatt of compute capacity on Nvidia's Grace Blackwell and Vera Russel systems.
Company Financials
Anthropic reported to shareholders that adjusted operating income will be positive for a second consecutive quarter, with gross margins exceeding 80% before revenue shared with partners and model training costs. The company's annualized revenue run rate reached approximately $65 billion by July, and its May funding round valued Anthropic at $965 billion. The company filed confidentially for its IPO on June 1.
Listing Timeline and Market Sentiment
Polymarket assigns a 61% probability to an October listing, down from 87% on September 4, with November at approximately 21%. Traders assign a 94% probability that Anthropic will reach public markets before OpenAI.
The probability of a $2 trillion-plus first-day close has declined from 74% on September 10 to 65.5%, according to Polymarket's price history. The same metric stood at 46.2% on August 14 before rising to 73.8% by September 10.
