Kalshi's prediction market platform has revealed an unexpected pattern in user demand: the most-requested market isn't tied to elections, sports, or economics—it's whether users' own relationships will end in divorce.
Andy Ross, Kalshi's Head of Institutional, disclosed the finding in recent comments about the platform's user-generated market requests. "Our number one market that we're asked by individuals to develop is, will my partner divorce me," Ross said.
The revelation highlights a tension within the prediction market industry between the high-profile markets platforms promote—including Federal Reserve decisions and election odds—and what individual users actually want to trade on.
Institutional Growth and Market Structure
Ross, who joined Kalshi in March, brings extensive Wall Street experience. He previously served as global head of prime brokerage at Standard Chartered and ran Curve Global, an interest-rate derivatives platform. Before that, he spent 16 years in over-the-counter clearing at Morgan Stanley.
Kalshi's institutional trading volume grew approximately 800% over a recent six-month period, with annualized volume reaching $178 billion. Ross positions Kalshi's order-book model as distinct from traditional sportsbooks, comparing it instead to commodity exchanges where buyers and sellers meet directly rather than trading against a house-set price.
The Federal Reserve and Market Guidance
Ross highlighted the role prediction markets may play as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has reduced detailed forward guidance compared to his predecessor Jerome Powell. "Perhaps as Mr. Warsh is going to do less forward guidance, the Kalshi data coming in is a great way of having a vision of the value of the commons," Ross noted.
Prediction market pricing has increasingly become a reference point for traders seeking clarity on policy direction, with significant capital flowing into Fed rate-decision markets on platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket.
