Prediction markets have emerged as a significant revenue driver for major crypto trading platforms, with Robinhood and Coinbase disclosing substantial earnings from event contracts in recent quarters.
Robinhood reported that event contracts generated $173 million in its third quarter, exceeding the $120 million earned from cryptocurrency transactions. This marks a crossover point where prediction markets now contribute more to the platform's revenue than crypto trading. Event-contract revenue accounted for approximately 12.1% of Robinhood's total net revenue of $1,424 million for the quarter.
The platform's event-contract revenue has grown steadily: $104 million in the first quarter, $156 million in the second, and $173 million in the third, totaling $433 million for the first nine months. Quarterly revenue rose about 66% from the first to the third quarter.
Coinbase reported that its prediction markets business surpassed $200 million in annualized net revenue, based on its most recent qualifying quarter. The company disclosed 82% compound quarterly growth in prediction-market revenue over the product's operating history, with daily traders increasing more than 60% quarter over quarter.
Coinbase Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas noted that the additional revenue stream was less correlated with crypto volatility, helping make the platform more resilient across market cycles.
Prediction markets remain a smaller revenue contributor at other platforms. Gemini reported $524,000 in prediction-market revenue for the second quarter ended June 30, representing approximately 1.2% of its total revenue.
Several other platforms expanded their prediction offerings in 2026. Crypto.com launched its prediction-market platform in February, while Bybit Prediction launched within Bybit Alpha in June. Phemex announced its prediction markets in April, and OKX introduced its Outcomes League campaign in August using nonmonetary points.
Robinhood cautioned that enforcement actions, litigation, or legal changes could prevent it from continuing to offer event contracts. The extent to which these businesses deliver recurring revenue at scale remains a key question for determining each platform's future dependence on crypto trading.
