Traders are pricing in just a 3% chance that Bitcoin sets a new record high before the end of 2026, according to prediction market Polymarket. The contract, which tracks a threshold of $130,000 or higher, reflects cautious sentiment as Bitcoin trades well below its October 2025 peak.
Where Bitcoin stands
As of October 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the low-to-mid $80,000 range, roughly $82,000 to $85,000. The cryptocurrency is down approximately 25% since October 2025, when it peaked near $126,080. Depending on where in the current band the price is measured, the drop from the all-time high works out to between 25% and 34%.
To surpass the record, Bitcoin would need to climb from the low $80,000s to above roughly $126,080—a rally of around 50% in about two months.
Options market pricing
Options traders on Deribit are slightly more optimistic, though on a lower target. Their pricing implies a 20% to 25% chance that Bitcoin touches $100,000 by year-end. The distinction matters: touching a level means a brief visit, while the odds of Bitcoin actually closing the year above $100,000 sit lower.
How sentiment shifted
The current gloom contrasts with earlier expectations. The CEO of Swan Bitcoin had put the odds of a new all-time high in 2026 at 10% to 15%. The prior cycle peak near $126,000 was built on strong sentiment tied to inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Then came the correction: Bitcoin slid hard after its October 2025 top, with lows around $58,000 in mid-2026—a drawdown of more than half from the peak.
The recovery from that bottom into the $80,000s is real. A move from about $58,000 to the low $80,000s is a meaningful bounce, but it hasn’t been enough to restore confidence that the old high is within reach this year.
What to watch
The $100,000 level is the line to watch, as it is the target options traders consider reachable at a 20% to 25% probability. There is also a gap between the different gauges. Polymarket’s contract tracks a specific threshold of $130,000 or higher, Deribit’s options focus on $100,000, and the Swan Bitcoin CEO’s estimate covered any new all-time high. Each measures a slightly different question, which helps explain the spread between them.
For long-term holders, the signal is mostly about timing. The market isn’t pricing out a future record; it is pricing out one happening in the next couple of months, with sentiment staying cautious and some belief in a limited recovery before 2027.
