Probability of Spot Bitcoin ETF Getting Approved Soars. Here’s Why

Alex Dovbnya

Recent shifts in the regulatory landscape are fueling optimism about the future of spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to industry analysts

Industry experts, such as James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, are increasingly optimistic that spot Bitcoin ETFs could receive approval soon, with predictions suggesting a 75% chance of approval this year and a 95% chance by the end of 2024. This renewed optimism is largely due to a recent favorable court decision for Grayscale, a prominent player in cryptocurrency asset management, against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The court found the SEC’s decision to deny Grayscale’s ETF proposal to be lacking in sufficient justification, leaving the regulatory agency with limited options for future denials.

This court decision carries weight not just in legal terms but also from a public relations perspective. The ruling garnered extensive media attention, including coverage by major news organizations. The widespread media exposure, combined with the firmness of the court’s decision, could potentially sway the SEC to be more open to approving spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

Grayscale’s landmark victory

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Grayscale CEO Sonnenshein stated that the ruling was “the culmination of more than a year’s worth of litigation.” Grayscale immediately filed a lawsuit after the SEC denied its conversion to an ETF.

“Fourteen months later, we finally got a decision from the D.C. Circuit, and a panel of three judges unanimously voted and agreed with Grayscale. A huge win for Grayscale. A huge win for our investors,” Sonnenshein noted.

However, it’s important to remember that the SEC has a 45-day window to appeal the case, which introduces an element of uncertainty.

The ruling has boosted confidence in the likelihood of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, but it’s not a guarantee. The SEC could still delay its decision, especially since the Grayscale ruling just took place. 

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