Raydium [RAY] lost the $2.5 level and dropped to $2.0 as the broader market retraced. At the time of reporting, RAY traded near $2.15, down 13% on the daily chart, while trading volume rose 35%, indicating heavier risk reduction across the market.
The decline raised questions about market dynamics: whether spot selling was driving the trend, or if derivatives traders were preparing for a rebound.
Spot Market Selling Pressure
RAY declined as spot holders cashed out. On October 12, Spot Netflow dropped sharply to -$1.3 million, followed by a rise to $0.5 million on October 13. Spot Sell Volume reached 3.7 million, outpacing Spot Buy Volume at 2.6 million. The Buy-Sell Delta fell to -1.17 million, confirming that sell volume exceeded buy volume.
Rising spot selling pressure typically weakens price action and leaves markets vulnerable to deeper losses.
Derivatives Market Activity
The derivatives market told a different story. RAY recorded over $9.2 million in futures inflows and $8.1 million in outflows, with Futures Netflow rising 227% to $1.2 million. Perpetual volume jumped from $3.2 million to $9.9 million, an increase of over $6.7 million.
Higher volume and stronger capital inflows into futures suggested traders were still taking positions, with some likely hedging while others positioned for volatility.
Technical Outlook
The MACD indicator formed a bearish crossover, falling to 0.18 and suggesting that bearish momentum was building. If market pressure continues, RAY could fail to hold $2.0 and potentially drop to $1.8, breaking below the 20-day EMA.
However, the absence of clear panic selling among derivatives traders meant that if capital flows remain strong in that market, Raydium could defend $2.0 and reclaim $2.5.
