Ripple is set to release 1 billion XRP from its escrow accounts on October 1, with the unlocked tokens valued at roughly $1.54 billion based on current market prices.
The October 1 release is part of Ripple's escrow system established in 2017, when the company locked 55 billion XRP into on-ledger escrow contracts to make token distributions predictable. According to XRP Ledger escrow data, approximately 31.98 billion XRP remains locked in the system.
Historical Pattern of Returns
Although monthly releases draw attention for their size, Ripple has historically returned a substantial portion of unlocked XRP to new escrow contracts. This means the actual increase in circulating supply is typically lower than the headline 1 billion XRP figure.
The event remains closely watched by market participants because increased circulating supply can create short-term selling pressure if demand fails to absorb the additional tokens. Conversely, a muted market reaction could suggest investors have already priced in the scheduled release.
Whale Accumulation Accelerates
The scheduled unlock coincides with increased activity from large investors. According to data from crypto analyst Ali Martinez, whales accumulated more than 470 million XRP over a five-day period, equivalent to approximately $724 million at current prices. Santiment data showed whale holdings climbed from roughly 12.37 billion XRP on September 21 to approximately 12.80 billion XRP by September 24.
The trend suggests some large holders are positioning for further upside despite the approaching supply release. Martinez also noted that XRP continues to form an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, a technical setup often monitored for potential breakout opportunities.
Technical Analysis
At the current price of $1.54, XRP is trading above its 50-day simple moving average of roughly $1.31 and its 200-day simple moving average of about $1.28. When an asset trades above both moving averages, it generally indicates buyers remain in control of the medium- and long-term trend. XRP's 14-day Relative Strength Index stands near 64, placing the token in neutral-to-bullish territory.
