Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev indicated that crypto contracts are rapidly outpacing sports contracts on the company's prediction markets platform. Speaking on CNBC's Mad Money, Tenev suggested that within a few years, sports contracts will become the minority category as crypto trading expands.
Robinhood's event-contract revenue jumped more than tenfold year-over-year to $156 million in the second quarter, marking the company's fastest-growing business line. Contract volumes reached 4.7 billion trades in August, roughly 15 times the volume from the year prior. Over the same period, Robinhood's crypto trading revenue declined.
The shift toward crypto reflects both market dynamics and regulatory considerations. Sports contracts face legal challenges, with courts split on whether states can regulate them as gambling. The Ninth Circuit ruled that Nevada can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts, while New Jersey has appealed to the Supreme Court. Crypto contracts face no comparable regulatory obstacle.
Robinhood's prediction markets infrastructure operates through three partners: Kalshi, Rothera (a CFTC-licensed joint venture with Susquehanna), and newly added minority stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-market spinoff OG.com.
Tenev cited prediction markets' accuracy on legislative outcomes, noting that Polymarket odds on the Clarity Act fell from 35% to 11% before the Senate voted against it, predicting the outcome before lawmakers did.
