Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev believes crypto categories are capturing a disproportionate share of the platform's prediction markets and could push sports into the minority within a few years.
Speaking on CNBC's Mad Money, Tenev said crypto-linked contracts are already grabbing an outsized portion of Robinhood's prediction markets business. He called sports contracts a "wedge" that helped launch the entire business, but expects the market to expand far beyond sports.
Explosive Growth in Event Contracts
Robinhood's event-contract revenue surged more than tenfold year over year to $156 million in the second quarter of 2026, making prediction markets the company's fastest-growing business line. Contracts traded 4.7 billion times in August alone, roughly 15 times the volume from August 2025.
Prediction markets, also called event contracts, allow traders to buy and sell yes-or-no bets on whether specific events will occur—such as Federal Reserve rate decisions, elections, or sporting outcomes. These contracts are regulated as derivatives by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Expanding Beyond Sports
Robinhood built its event-contract hub on top of Kalshi, the exchange that won a legal battle against the CFTC to offer election-related contracts. The platform then layered on Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed joint venture with trading firm Susquehanna. This month, Robinhood took minority equity stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-market spinoff OG.com.
Competition is intensifying as CME, Coinbase, and decentralized platforms race to sign up traders for event contracts. Crypto-native platforms like Polymarket helped popularize this category years before traditional Wall Street brokerages entered the market.
Regulatory Questions Remain
More than 10 bills have been introduced in Congress since January targeting prediction markets, including the PREDICT Act, which would ban members of Congress and senior officials from trading contracts tied to political events. Critics argue that offering both sports and political wagers alongside retirement accounts blurs the line between investing and gambling.
