Russia's legalization of broker-facilitated cryptocurrency trading is projected to generate at least $46.43 billion in regulated trading volume during its first year of operation, according to estimates from Sberbank Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board Anatoly Popov.
The new regulatory framework, which took effect on September 1, allows Russian investors to purchase cryptocurrency assets through licensed brokers. However, Popov emphasized that the bank's projections are conservative, as a significant portion of crypto trading activity is expected to continue outside the regulated system.
Sberbank analysts estimate that approximately 20 percent of Russia's current cryptocurrency transaction volume will migrate to regulated exchanges in the first year. Based on Finance Ministry data showing daily crypto transactions of around 50 billion rubles, this translates to 3.5 to 4 trillion rubles annually. The bank projects this figure could grow to 4.75 to 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 and reach 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029.
Restrictions Limiting Market Growth
Several regulatory constraints will limit the expansion of legal crypto trading. Non-qualified investors can purchase only up to 300,000 rubles, approximately $3,800, in cryptocurrency per year through a single licensed intermediary following a risk awareness assessment. Qualified investors face higher limits of up to 3 million rubles, or about $38,000 annually.
Additionally, only three assets have received approval from the Bank of Russia for trading on official exchanges: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether. Other altcoins remain unavailable through regulated channels, likely directing investor interest toward unregistered platforms. Licensed exchanges have until July 1, 2027, to register under the new regulatory framework.
