Solana (SOL) has fallen about 20% over the past 30 days, prompting analysts to examine historical patterns around U.S. midterm elections. Data from previous cycles in 2022 and 2023 suggest the token tends to underperform for roughly a year after such elections before regaining momentum.
Market pressure from liquidation clusters
Technical analysis highlights deep liquidation clusters below the current price, extending toward the $73 level. These clusters can act as price magnets, increasing the likelihood of further declines.
Network activity slowdown
Artemis reports a drop in Solana network revenue from $1.3 million on October 6 to $442,000 at the time of analysis. Transaction volume also fell from roughly 163 million to 120 million, indicating reduced on‑chain activity that may dampen demand for SOL.
Despite the slowdown, the Total Value Locked (TVL) on the network remained relatively stable, rising 1% to $5.416 billion over the past 24 hours, suggesting balanced buying and selling pressure.
ETF outflows signal investor sentiment
U.S. spot SOL ETFs recorded net outflows of $71.48 million over the last five trading days, representing about 5% of the token’s market capitalization. Total assets under management for Solana ETFs remain around $1.4 billion.
Outlook
Combined factors—historical election trends, technical liquidation clusters, declining network revenue, and notable ETF withdrawals—point to a potential further decline for SOL, with some analysts noting the $73 region as a possible target.
