Solana (SOL) is trading near $106 after a roughly 15% pullback from its late-September high. The daily chart now shows a possible head-and-shoulders pattern that could put $80 in play, even as weekly chart signals and on-chain data present a more mixed picture.
Daily Chart Flashes Head-and-Shoulders Risk
Solana’s daily chart still prints higher highs and higher lows, but a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern may be forming within that uptrend. The left shoulder formed near $111 in late August, and the head peaked near $125 in late September after sellers rejected the price at the $120 resistance zone. The right shoulder could take shape at the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $115. Contracting volume since August supports the bearish reading.
A daily close below the neckline near $100 would confirm the pattern. The measured move points to the $80 support zone, about 25% below the current price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 44 and is rising, though the bounce may only be a retest of the RSI downtrend that began in August.
Weekly Chart Keeps Bullish Case Alive
One market analyst sees a possible cup-and-handle pattern, a classic bullish reversal formation, on the weekly timeframe. Key resistance sits between $125 and $130. A confirmed breakout and hold above that zone could open a path toward $215 to $220, roughly 65% higher. In that scenario, the current pullback would form the handle, and a move above $130 would also invalidate the daily head-and-shoulders.
ETF Investors Head for the Exit
Glassnode data shows the money behind both recent rallies. US spot SOL ETF inflows topped 200,000 SOL per day on a 7-day average, with waves in late August and late September matching the left shoulder and head. The flow reversed after the early October rejection. The 7-day average has since dropped to around minus 40,000 SOL per day, roughly $4.2 million, the deepest reading of 2026.
Institutions and Individuals Stay On-Chain
Tokenized real-world assets (RWA) on Solana, excluding stablecoins, total about $4.4 billion. That figure has roughly doubled since early May and sits just below its late-September peak despite SOL’s correction. BlackRock and State Street are among the issuers. These assets are dollar-denominated, so their value reflects network usage rather than demand for SOL.
Individual adoption is growing as well. Solana says 1.4 million addresses now hold tokenized stocks on the network.
Price Levels That Could Decide the Next Move
A daily close below $100 would favor the bears and the $80 target. A sustained move above $115 would weaken the head-and-shoulders. A weekly breakout above $130 would hand control to the bulls. The Alpenglow upgrade, scheduled for Oct. 21, could act as a near-term catalyst; developers expect it to cut transaction finality to around 150 milliseconds.
ETF flows point one way, and on-chain adoption points the other. Which signal carries more weight is for each reader to judge against these levels.
