Bitcoin advocate and Strive executive Adam Livingston has outlined a financial scenario examining how Strategy’s treasury of 847,666 bitcoin could reach a valuation of $161.8 billion, representing an increase of about $90 billion compared to its current value of approximately $71.6 billion.
Strategy acquired its 847,666 BTC for about $63.95 billion, reflecting an average price of $75,437 per coin. Livingston’s hypothetical projection is contingent upon two main market developments: a 15% increase in the price of gold to $4,760 per ounce, and a recovery of the bitcoin-to-gold ratio back to its December 2024 peak level.
Breakdown of the Scenario
Data shows that bitcoin priced in gold peaked at approximately 40.1 ounces around December 17, 2024, when bitcoin traded near $106,140 and gold was priced near $2,662. The ratio has since dropped by roughly 49% to about 20.4 ounces, with bitcoin trading near $84,600 and gold futures closing around $4,162 an ounce.
Under Livingston's scenario, multiplying 40.1 ounces of gold by a target price of $4,760 yields a bitcoin price of $190,858. This target sits about 51% above bitcoin’s record price of roughly $126,000, which was reached on October 6, 2025.
Broader Market Expectations
While Livingston's internal calculations demonstrate how the figures connect, broader market predictions from financial institutions and prediction platforms currently sit below the $190,000 mark:
- Citi: Maintains a 12-month bitcoin price target of $113,000.
- Polymarket: Estimates approximately 60% odds for bitcoin reaching $90,000.
- Kalshi: Indicates a 34% chance of bitcoin hitting $100,000 in 2026.
The primary assumption underlying the scenario is whether bitcoin can recover nearly two years of underperformance against gold in a single market move.
