- TD Cowen keeps CLARITY Act passage odds at 40% due to a worsening political environment.
- The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill, but it still needs 60 votes in the full Senate.
- The main conflict is Section 307, which bars Congress and the President from crypto trading and targets Trump’s ventures.
Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at TD Cowen, believes the prospects of the United States enacting its most significant crypto regulatory measure, the CLARITY Act, are dwindling.
And as political tensions in Washington build, it is increasingly doubtful that it will pass this year.
TD Cowen Analyzes Grim Clarity Act Odds
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the cryptocurrency bill with a 15–9 vote this May.
But TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg is cautioning crypto market participants to be careful about their expectations.
He says that this committee vote is “just a move to the plenary floor of the full Senate.
Getting 60 votes in the full Senate is a very high mountain to climb.
Consequently, TD Cowen maintains a pessimistic 40% probability for the bill passing the legislature this year.
TD Cowen flags worsening political environment for the CLARITY Act
TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group warned that the political environment for the CLARITY Act is deteriorating, despite May’s bipartisan Senate Banking advance. Analyst Jaret Seiberg has kept his passage odds… pic.twitter.com/7mXMqhDryI
— BSCN (@BSCNews) May 26, 2026
This is a conservative forecast, which is quite different from the rest of the crypto market.
In addition, the political climate in which the Clarity Act is operating is rapidly becoming more difficult.
Despite this progress, the lawmakers haven’t come to a full bipartisan agreement.
So, the institutional investor should expect an extended period of legislative uncertainty in Washington.
The Trump Venture Standoff Flagged by TD Cowen
A contentious ethics provision within Section 307 remains the primary source of political deadlock.
This particular provision explicitly prohibits the President, Vice President, and Congress from engaging in crypto asset trading.
Consequently, the rule directly impacts recent crypto ventures tied to the Trump family.
They have large-scale projects such as World Liberty Financial and American Bitcoin.
According to Seiberg, Democrats may now find it more difficult to support the bill without tighter ethical standards, while Republicans may become less likely to advance the legislation if fresh amendments directly target Trump.
This political gap has raised questions about whether lawmakers will be able to enact the bill before the end of the year.
Senator Thom Tillis is also holding incredibly firm on this controversial ethics language. He refuses to support the bill unless the rules apply to the Trump family.
Thus, TD Cowen notes this impasse makes securing vital Democratic support much harder.
This comes after Congress delayed the clarity act as crypto industry fears another lost year
Extreme Delays Push Policy Timeline to 2027
The tight legislative window before the upcoming August recess further complicates the timeline.
Political controversy is likely to die down altogether before lawmakers can take final action. Hence, the standoff has the potential of blocking the policy agenda for several months.
These additional delays could easily drag final passage into 2027, according to TD Cowen. Otherwise, agencies will not adopt the final rules until 2029.
Such an extended timeline would prolong regulatory uncertainty for the entire crypto industry.
Overall, Washington is sharply divided over rules governing digital asset governance and ethics.