A technical analyst has projected that Nvidia stock could face a significant correction to $130 by late December 2026, representing a potential 40% decline from current levels, according to analysis published on TradingView.
The bearish forecast comes from TradingShot, an analyst who examined Nvidia's long-term price patterns using technical indicators. The prediction suggests the stock is displaying technical conditions similar to those observed before major corrections in 2018 and 2022.
Technical Analysis Framework
According to the analysis, Nvidia has traded within an 11-year ascending channel dating back to July 2015. Within this structure, the stock has historically moved through cyclical bullish and bearish phases that produced major peaks and troughs.
The analyst identified Nvidia's May 14, 2026, all-time high as the likely peak of the current cycle. Since that point, price action has moved sideways despite strong fundamental developments in artificial intelligence.
Key Support Levels
The analysis identifies an initial downside target of around $170, which aligns with Nvidia's 100-week moving average and key support levels from 2025 and 2026. A weekly close below that level could open the door to a deeper decline toward the 200-week moving average, projected to sit near $130 by late December 2026.
The bearish outlook is supported by Nvidia's monthly Relative Strength Index showing a bearish divergence since June 2024, as momentum failed to confirm new price highs. Similar setups preceded the stock's major corrections in 2018 and 2022.
Recent Earnings Context
The projection arrives following Nvidia's strong fiscal second-quarter 2027 earnings report on August 26, which showed revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, with data center revenue reaching $89 billion. The company guided for third-quarter revenue of approximately $108 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations.
