A trader has placed a substantial bet on bitcoin's price movement around the U.S. midterm elections in early November. On October 20, a single wallet purchased 800 contracts of $90,000 call options expiring November 6 on the decentralized exchange Derive, representing approximately $68 million in face value at current bitcoin prices and marking the largest open bitcoin position on the platform.
The position was structured as a spread trade. The wallet sold 400 contracts of $100,000 calls expiring in March 2027 and another 400 contracts of $90,000 calls expiring October 30, netting approximately $940,000 after financing costs. A call option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase bitcoin at the predetermined strike price on or before the expiration date.
Beyond this single large trade, broader market sentiment has shifted toward higher price expectations. The market-implied probability of bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by year-end rose from 9.7% one week prior to 12%. Simultaneously, the implied probability of bitcoin falling below $70,000 by Christmas declined from 15.6% to 11%.
These movements contrast with sentiment on Deribit, the larger centralized options exchange, where negative 25-delta skews for both bitcoin and ether indicate a bias toward downside protection through put options.
