The US 10-year Treasury yield last traded near 6% in April 2000, roughly eight years before Bitcoin's creation. Market strategist Rick Bensignor now expects yields to approach that level again, targeting 6.07% from current levels around 4.78%.
Bensignor, founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies, cited a multi-year uptrend line and a 200-week moving average that marked a recent low near 4% as technical indicators supporting higher yields. He noted that 10-year Treasury yields have historically ranged widely—peaking at 15.8% in the early 1980s and bottoming near 40 basis points at their record low.
Even if yields don't reach Bensignor's 6.07% target, he identified 5.6% as a minimum upside target and suggested that current borrowers underestimate how high rates can climb. Yields have trended strongly upward this year.
Implications for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has never operated in a Treasury market environment approaching 6% yields. Rising yields typically redirect capital toward safer, income-generating assets and away from speculative investments, which could pressure Bitcoin's narrative as a hedge against US debt concerns.
US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, yet Bitcoin trades near $80,138—roughly 37% below its record high. If yields continue climbing while Bitcoin remains range-bound, the disconnect between rising debt and the asset's price could widen.
Some market observers argue that yield increases driven by factors like inflation, fiscal stress, or resilient growth could affect Bitcoin differently than rate-sensitive risk assets. Recent bond market turmoil demonstrates how quickly yield spikes can spread to other markets, suggesting the outcome remains uncertain.
