Futures traders assign a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, according to the source. With that decision largely priced in, market attention has turned to two debates inside the central bank: where rates go next and how much officials communicate about it.
Both debates matter for bitcoin (BTC) and gold (XAU), which pay no interest and tend to lose appeal when borrowing costs are expected to rise.
Where Will the Fed Take Rates After Wednesday?
The Fed raised rates in September to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first hike since 2023. The bet on the next hike has now moved to December, with futures putting a 75% probability on a hike at the December 8-9 meeting, according to CME FedWatch data cited in the source.
Officials agree rates must climb but disagree on why, as an energy shock and an AI boom hit the economy, the Journal reported. The next test of that bet lands on Thursday, when September inflation data and third-quarter growth figures are both released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
How Fed Mixed Signals Moved the Market Last Time
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in the job since May, refuses to preview future moves. “We’re committed to a discipline, not to a decision,” he said, according to the source.
Investors still read his remarks and the data as pointing to another hike that week, putting the odds near 70%. Then New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no need for urgency.” Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed him, Reuters reported.
By October 16, the odds of an October hike had dropped to 15%. Bitcoin and gold then split. Bitcoin climbed from near $76,000 on hike day to above $85,000 on September 30, when cooler inflation data landed. Gold went the other way. December gold futures opened near $4,190 on October 1, down from about $4,340 for spot gold on hike day, Yahoo Finance data showed.
The report tied gold’s weakness to rising bond yields and a firmer dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 5.01% on Sept. 16 to 5.29% on Sept. 30.
Sixteen longer-serving Fed officials made at least 59 public comments between the September meeting and this week’s quiet period, a Journal tally found. That roughly matches the 54 from a year earlier.
“It’s probably the worst of all possible outcomes. Nobody can force him to talk for the committee. And frankly, he can’t force other committee members to shut up,” WSJ reported, citing former Fed economist Claudia Sahm.
What a Firm or Vague Warsh Could Mean for Bitcoin and Gold
Bitcoin traded at $80,458 on Tuesday, while spot gold traded for $4,059 an ounce. Meanwhile, the dollar held near a one-week high, whereas the 10-year yield sat at 4.9% on Monday.
BeInCrypto flagged on September 16 that Warsh’s press conference could matter more than the decision itself. Brandon Zureick, chief economist at Johnson Investment Counsel, made the same point this week.
Independent analyst Nadim Zidan set out both paths. A hawkish lean, meaning firm signals toward a December hike, would lift yields and the dollar and test Bitcoin’s $79,000 support, he wrote. A dovish, softer lean would let gold rebound.
For gold, Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, told Reuters a break below $3,900 could open a slide toward $3,800.
