A prediction market contract on Kalshi assessing the odds of a U.S. Treasury bitcoin purchase has climbed to 21% for a deadline of January 1, 2028, compared to just 2% for the remainder of 2026. The contract requires an official Treasury announcement of a completed bitcoin purchase for government reserves to resolve affirmatively; speeches, studies, and executive orders do not qualify.
The market's thinness raises questions about the reliability of the odds. Only approximately 1,617 dollars in total volume backs the contract, with roughly 309 contracts traded on the 2028 deadline and about 1,305 on the 2026 deadline. In such a shallow market, a single motivated trader can significantly move prices, and the 2028 contract slipped to 11% by Monday morning after hitting 21%.
The contrast is stark when compared to Kalshi's deeper market on whether a National Bitcoin Reserve will be created by January 1, 2027, which has logged close to 200,000 contracts traded.
Structural Barriers to Purchase
Legal and budgetary obstacles complicate the path to a Treasury purchase. An executive order establishing a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve restricts open-market purchases, while the BITCOIN Act, which would mandate buying, has not been enacted into law. Without new legislation or a budget-neutral workaround, the Treasury currently lacks a clear mechanism to execute a purchase.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated support for bitcoin and cryptocurrency potential in comments to the House Armed Services Committee in April, but described related Pentagon work as classified. Enthusiasm alone does not create budget authority.
Bitcoin Price Predictions
Separately, Kalshi traders assessed bitcoin price movements for October, pricing a contract for bitcoin falling below $77,500 at 44% odds across more than 117,000 contracts. Bitcoin declined to $79,146 over the weekend. The "below $80,000" contract has effectively settled following the recent price dip.
Prediction markets overall logged record trading activity in crypto contracts, with Kalshi and Polymarket combined processing $2.7 billion in crypto bets for the week, driven primarily by bitcoin positions.
