UBS Global Wealth Management has revised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,100, driven by a stronger profit outlook and resilient economic conditions. The updated projection from the Swiss institution follows ongoing upward revisions for US equities by major banks and institutional investors amid robust corporate earnings.
According to Reuters, the new target implies approximately 6% gains from recent levels near 7,674. UBS attributes its positive outlook for the bull market to three primary supports: steady economic expansion, accommodative monetary policy, and widespread artificial intelligence adoption.
Alongside the index target adjustment, the firm raised its earnings-per-share projections to $350 for 2026 and $400 for 2027, up from earlier estimates of $335 and $375, respectively. Several other institutional investors have similarly established year-end targets above 8,000 for the index.
UBS noted that while artificial intelligence-related companies continue to contribute significantly, recent performance has additionally benefited from improving conditions within more cyclical sectors of the economy. The bank also elevated its mid-2027 index goal to 8,400 from its previous target of 8,200.
Meanwhile, data highlighted by the Kobeissi Letter indicates positive momentum in the US labor market. In July, 20% of small business owners reported plans to hire over the subsequent three months, marking the highest reading since October 2022 and surpassing the historical average of approximately 11% since the 1970s. Because small firms account for roughly 46% of all US private-sector employment, this indicator has historically preceded nonfarm private payroll trends by three to six months.
