Humanoid robots could reach a “ChatGPT moment” within two to three years under ideal conditions, and five to ten years if progress stalls, according to Unitree founder Wang Xingxing. Speaking at the World Robot Conference in Beijing on Thursday, Wang outlined the industry benchmark as a robot capable of entering an unfamiliar home or workplace and completing roughly 80% of tasks using only spoken or typed instructions.
Wang noted that while OpenAI's chatbot quickly transitioned from a laboratory novelty to mass-market product following its late 2022 launch, spatial navigation and physical AI models have yet to experience a similar leap. He highlighted residual error—the gap between digital models and physical hardware—as the primary bottleneck facing embodied AI, adding that decision-making models remain a central industry weakness.
The remarks followed Unitree's debut on China’s A-share market on Wednesday, where the company became the first humanoid maker to list. The stock surged 460.34% above its 150.80 yuan offer price before falling sharply on Thursday. The Hangzhou-based company was valued at 340 billion yuan, or approximately $50.42 billion, following the initial listing.
Industry timelines vary. Wang He, founder of the startup Galbot, projected the sector's milestone by 2028 for handling everyday tasks without special training. Meanwhile, Unitree's prospectus indicated that the majority of its buyers are universities and research institutions rather than factories, with the company having shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots in 2025.
Data cited from a Chinese industry body report indicated that China delivered over 40,000 units in the first half of the year, accounting for 97% of global shipments. A State Council research center has projected the physical AI market to reach 400 billion yuan by 2030 and exceed one trillion yuan by 2035.
Regulatory pressures are also mounting. Beijing's economic planners have instructed manufacturers to halt flooding the market with near-identical designs. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission banned future imports of foreign-made humanoid and quadruped robots on national security grounds last month.
