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US House Advances Bitcoin Reserve Bill, but Legal Passage Odds Drop to 6%

The House Financial Services Committee has voted to advance the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026, which would establish Bitcoin as a national reserve asset. However, odds of the bill becoming law by 2027 have fallen sharply to 6%, down from 60% in December.
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US House Advances Bitcoin Reserve Bill, but Legal Passage Odds Drop to 6%

The US House Financial Services Committee has voted to advance the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026 (H.R. 8957), which proposes creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The committee voted 28-21 in favor, with Republican votes comprising the majority.

The bill follows an official decree signed by President Donald Trump in March to include Bitcoin as a national reserve asset. For the directive to take effect as federal law, it must complete the legislative process.

Key Provisions

The proposed reserve includes several components:

  • A two-decade Bitcoin lockup requirement
  • An accumulation goal of 1 million BTC over five years
  • Budget-neutral BTC acquisition
  • A digital asset stockpile for altcoins
  • Regular third-party audits

Legislative Hurdles

Despite the committee's advancement of the bill, political obstacles remain substantial. Odds of passage by 2027 have declined to 6%, according to Polymarket, down from a 60% probability in December.

Several factors are contributing to reduced prospects for the legislation. The CLARITY Act faced rejection despite multiple negotiations over eighteen months. Congressional attention is shifting toward midterm elections, tightening the legislative schedule. Additionally, federal agencies remain misaligned on oversight responsibilities, with the Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel now mediating a dispute among the Treasury, Commerce, and Justice departments over who should oversee the multi-million dollar digital reserve.

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