A recent analysis by researchers at the New York Federal Reserve indicates that the declining share of the US dollar in global foreign-exchange reserves stems from both changing reserve sizes and currency choices, meaning the shrinking share does not establish sovereign demand for Bitcoin.
According to researchers Linda S. Goldberg, Oliver Hannaoui, and Sneha Parthasarathy, using IMF COFER data, the dollar's share of global official foreign-exchange reserves fell from 64% at the end of 2015 to 56% at the end of 2025. Country-level evidence shows this shift is driven by a combination of portfolio preference changes and fluctuations in total reserve sizes.
The study highlights that countries can alter their currency mix, known as the preferences channel, or experience growth and shrinkage in total reserves that alter their weight in the global average. For example, between 2015 and 2019, Switzerland's reserve growth pulled down the aggregate global dollar share even while its own internal dollar allocation increased.
Underlying New York Fed research separates reserves required for liquidity—such as trade payments, foreign-currency debt, and currency stabilization—from investment portions that exceed those needs. While diversification often occurs when reserves surpass liquidity requirements, the research notes that moving beyond liquidity needs does not identify where the funds are ultimately directed.
The analysis does not measure sovereign Bitcoin purchases or estimate price effects. Documenting sovereign Bitcoin demand would require explicit evidence, including disclosed allocations, funding sources, executed purchases, and clear reserve classifications distinguishing official holdings from assets held outside reserves. A shrinking dollar share provides none of these details.
