Stellar's XLM fell another 3.11% over the past 24 hours, continuing a steady decline that began at the end of September, when the token reached $0.236 as part of an uptrend at the time.
Network progress meets weaker sentiment
On the network side, the Bell upgrade is scheduled for November and marks the first step in what has been framed as a post-quantum security era for Stellar. The project also became a default network in MetaMask's mobile app and browser extension.
Market sentiment, however, was unsettled by the Mercado Bitcoin security incident, which followed shortly after the Binance heist. Reports indicated the attacker held 6.7 million XLM.
Derivatives and volume signals
- Open Interest showed little movement, pointing to a lack of speculative capital flows in the short term.
- Spot CVD jumped higher.
- CoinMarketCap data showed a 39.5% daily increase in trading volume.
- Funding rates were positive.
Chart structure tilts bearish
On the weekly timeframe, a bullish structure remains in place, and the On-Balance Volume indicator has not sunk dramatically, suggesting that selling during the two corrections this year was not sizeable.
Even so, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.173 has been ceded to the bears, and momentum is bearish. Positive funding rates and intraday spot CVD spikes do not change that picture.
On the mapped swing structure, a bearish change of character occurred when $0.171 was lost in the second half of October. The feeble bounce from $0.157 to retest that resistance zone cemented short-term seller dominance.
Levels to watch
XLM could bounce toward the $0.20 psychological round-number supply zone in the coming weeks. Because the weekly timeframe remains bullish, a daily session close above $0.175 would amount to an internal structure shift and could be taken as a sign that bulls are back in control.
Even in that case, swing traders and long-term investors should keep an eye on capital inflows and market sentiment. A Bitcoin selloff and a market-wide liquidation cascade during fearful periods such as the past few weeks could trigger a continuation of XLM's downtrend.
In short, Stellar's price action showed a bearish shift in character toward the end of October, and despite the network's recent positive updates, the wider market backdrop has given sellers the advantage.
