XRP’s death cross is confirmed on the weekly chart, but a tightening compression range has one analyst watching $1.80 closely as the next critical test.
The range has been tightening for months. XRP is still underneath it. That combination is starting to draw attention for the wrong reasons.
Technical analyst ChartNerdTA, on X, flagged the weekly 20 and 55 EMAs still sitting above price as unreclaimed resistance. The death cross formed back in late January. Since then, XRP has attempted to push back into those moving averages twice. Neither attempt held.
The $1.80 Level Nobody Has Forgotten
The asset lost its 2025 support range somewhere around late January, early February. That whole band, held through most of last year, flipped. According to ChartNerdTA on X, XRP now appears to be building a base beneath that old support in what could be a retest attempt toward the $1.80 zone.
The $1.80 area carried price through multiple contact points across 2025. Losing it was what triggered the death cross formation. Getting back above it, per the analysis, would be the only real confirmation that the downtrend has reversed.
The XRP consolidation inside this compression range has stretched long enough that breakout energy is visibly building. The triangle has an apex. It is arriving.
A break toward $1.50 remains possible, ChartNerdTA noted. Maybe $1.80. But both of those sit directly under EMAs and descending resistance. Rejection from that zone would mean a lower high. Lower high continuing the downtrend, pointing back down toward targets the analyst has named before in separate videos — somewhere between 70 and 90 cents.
Stochastic RSI Is Flashing a Warning
The Stochastic RSI is pushing toward overbought territory on the weekly. Last time it reached these levels was the all-time high period in July 2025. That comparison is uncomfortable. Price was several multiples higher then.
Sitting at these readings while still compressed inside a declining structure is a different signal. Per ChartNerdTA’s breakdown on X, the current oversold-approaching-overboard condition inside a downtrend calls for caution, not aggression.
Liquidity on the three-month heat map stacks mostly below current price. Around the $1.30 zone. That level held for most of February, March, and April. It has become a hotspot on the liquidation map, which suggests the market may sweep back down toward it even if a short-term push to $1.50 materializes first.
The XRP ETF inflow data running parallel to this compression is the one variable the chart cannot explain cleanly. Institutions are still buying the product. The chart is still printing lower highs.
What Actually Invalidates the Bear Case
ChartNerdTA on X was specific about the condition. Reclaiming the weekly EMAs is not enough on its own. XRP would need to close above $1.80 and hold it as support, converting former resistance back into a floor. That, per the analysis, is what would confirm a low is already in.
The wick from the recent move gives a high near $2.40. That level now acts as the upper boundary of the entire bearish structure. Everything below it, including $1.80, remains under pressure by default.
Trend still points lower until the structure breaks. That is the honest read. And the honest read is the one worth respecting.
This article reflects technical analysis sourced from ChartNerdTA on X. It is not financial or investment advice.
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