XRP is approaching a critical test as it trades near $1.08 and technical indicators show extreme weakness. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 26.64 on November 9, and the price remains below both the 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages.
Historical performance after oversold signals
Bitrue Research analyzed instances when XRP’s RSI dropped below 35 since January 2023. Out of 18 such occurrences, 17 have complete 90‑day data. Twelve of those 17 periods ended in price gains, representing a 70.6% success rate. The median return over the 90‑day window was +9.1%, compared with a +3% median return across all trading days. The median deepest decline during those periods was 21.8%.
Shorter horizons were less reliable: XRP recovered within 30 days in 11 of 18 cases, while the 60‑day recovery rate was 50%.
Market context
Four of the five unsuccessful 90‑day recoveries occurred during a prolonged market downturn between October 2025 and January 2026, indicating broader market conditions influence outcomes.
Current trading conditions
US spot XRP ETFs recorded approximately $10.4 million in outflows on November 9. Buying pressure remains weak, with a 20‑day volume ratio of 0.45, meaning falling sessions attracted more than twice the volume of rising sessions.
Key price levels to watch
- Below $1.036: Further declines toward $1 and potentially $0.93 become more likely.
- Above $1.18: A sustained breakout with stronger buying volume could signal a strengthening recovery.
- $1.32–$1.48: The next major resistance zone if buyers regain control.
Bitrue analysts note that oversold readings indicate intense selling rather than its conclusion. A lasting recovery will depend on buyer participation and broader market stabilization.
