Kalshi's September XRP prediction market is pricing a $1.70 target with modest conviction. The contract for XRP closing above $1.70 trades at 32 cents, down from 36 cents a day earlier, implying roughly a one-in-three probability of the outcome. XRP is currently trading near $1.55, requiring a 9.8% gain to settle the contract in the affirmative before the September 30 deadline.
XRP has already cleared three price levels on Kalshi this month. The $1.40 strike settled on September 3, followed by the $1.50 level on September 21 and the $1.60 level on September 22. The token reached $1.64 on September 23, its best performance for the month, before pulling back. Early in the month, XRP had dipped to roughly $1.26 around mid-September.
The path to $1.70 faces headwinds. Bitcoin has stalled near $84,000 after failing to break above $87,000, and XRP's pullbacks have tracked bitcoin's weakness. Additionally, the market is monitoring $157 million in XRP stolen in the Bitget hack, which remains in unfreezable wallets. Kalshi settles contracts using CF Benchmarks' XRP reference rate, calculated from a per-minute average that excludes the top and bottom 20% of prices, requiring XRP to hold above levels sustained enough to affect the trimmed average.
Longer-dated XRP bets show different momentum. Kalshi's 2026 contract for XRP exceeding $2.00 rose to 59 cents from 53 cents, while the $2.50 line climbed to 33 cents from 26 cents. U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded inflows of $22.65 million on September 25, led by Bitwise, though the buying has not yet pushed XRP back above $1.60.
