XRP's 365-day MVRV ratio has dropped to about 0.92, placing holders roughly 8% below their cost basis, according to Santiment. The metric, which compares market value to realized value, indicates that the average holder in the window bought above the current price. XRP was trading near $1.33 at the time of the data.
Holders underwater
A reading below 1 can reduce the incentive to take profits, since few holders sit on gains. However, it can also describe a market where marginal buyers have thinned out. Santiment's Oct. 20 readings put DOGE's 365-day MVRV near 0.74, while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chainlink as a group ranged between 0.97 and 1.04. XRP's 0.92 shows less valuation stress than DOGE but more than other majors.
Glassnode warned Oct. 19 that more than 40% of large-cap altcoins sit near their own yearly leverage highs. The share of mid-caps with elevated leverage reached a yearly high. Glassnode's Oct. 14 research added that leverage concentration across individual coins has been unusually elevated since Sept. 28, while its aggregate market measure stayed subdued, pointing to crowded positions in specific tokens. More than half of large-cap altcoins and roughly one-third of mid-caps remain in their yearly top decile for open interest relative to market value.
Leverage reset reaches one exchange
CryptoQuant's Oct. 17 analysis shows Binance XRP futures open interest falling 15.8%, from $538.1 million on Oct. 4 to $453 million, as the price slid from $1.52 to $1.29. Binance's estimated leverage ratio fell from 0.205 to 0.170, long liquidations reached $25.7 million on Oct. 7 and Oct. 8, and funding was negative on six of the last 11 days in the observation period.
Glassnode's Oct. 19 data shows over $1.4 billion in XRP futures open interest, with Binance at $385.4 million, or about 27%. Bybit holds $243.3 million, Gate $217.0 million, Bitget $200.3 million, and Hyperliquid $170.5 million. Roughly 73% of tracked exposure sits on other venues, whose Oct. 4 baselines are undisclosed, so the reset on Binance describes one exchange.
Funding has turned positive, with Glassnode's Oct. 19 readings running from +0.006% on Binance to +0.010% on Bybit, OKX, Bitget and Hyperliquid and an open-interest-weighted average of +0.009%. A Coinalyze-sourced snapshot on Oct. 20 shows Binance XRPUSDT open interest at $415.3 million and positive funding on Binance and Bybit.
Exchange supply overhang
CryptoQuant counted 11.81 billion XRP in aggregate exchange reserves on Oct. 17, in the 99th percentile of the prior year. Binance holds about 2.67 billion XRP, around the 30th percentile of its own range, so the elevated total sits mostly on other venues. At $1.33, the reserves are worth about $15.7 billion. If 1% were offered for sale, the 118.1 million XRP would be about $157 million, near 34% of the $464 million in spot volume CoinGlass logged over 24 hours.
Reserves are balances at exchange addresses that can serve for custody, market making, hedging, or collateral, and are separate from sell orders. Deleveraging can cut forced-selling risk while readily tradable XRP inventory stays high, which is why a sub-1 MVRV is a valuation observation and a weak basis for a recovery forecast.
What the XRP levels decide
XRP nearly touched an intraday high of $1.35 as of Oct. 20. A move above $1.31 is a shorter-timeframe reversal, while $1.55 is a conditional upside target. From $1.33, a fall to $1.25 is about 6%, and a rise to $1.55 is about 16.5%. Bitcoin around $82,000 and its $80,000 to $81,500 support area set the backdrop, with the Fed deciding Oct. 28.
If XRP holds $1.25, clears $1.35 and then $1.40 on spot-led buying while open interest stays flat or lower, the reset has made room for a healthier recovery, and $1.55 comes into view. A rally that arrives with fast-climbing open interest and intensifying positive funding rebuilds the fragility that Binance just shed.
If XRP closes decisively below $1.25 with weak spot demand, especially if Bitcoin loses $80,000, roughly 73% of futures exposure outside Binance and elevated exchange supply could meet a broader altcoin unwind. Technical references place further downside near $1.10 to $1.15 as a stress range, and these levels are conditional references.
XRP shows reduced leverage stress on its largest exchange and a cheaper valuation, but independent spot demand sufficient to absorb exchange supply is the missing piece.
