XRP faces a concentrated cost barrier as it attempts to recover toward $2. According to Glassnode data, 72.6% of the network's realized capitalization is held in coins that last moved between six months and two years ago, with average acquisition prices of $2.02 and $2.23 respectively.
Realized capitalization, which values each unit at the price when it last moved, reveals where the network's embedded cost basis sits. The six-to-12-month cohort contains over $39.2 billion, while the one-to-two-year cohort holds $27.5 billion. Together, these groups represent 31.36 billion XRP, or 46.22% of modeled supply.
Recent trading activity shows mixed signals. Binance recorded gross inflows of 91.23 million XRP and outflows of 113.91 million XRP on September 11, both marking six-month highs. The exchange's seven-day average XRP reserve stood at 2.63 billion, with average derivatives open interest at $476.7 million. These large simultaneous flows suggest possible rotation among market participants rather than directional pressure.
A rally toward $2 would bring the largest holder cohorts closer to their average acquisition costs, potentially revealing whether dormant coins become more active as modeled losses shrink. Newer buyer cohorts, positioned in the $1.14 to $1.40 range, currently sit near or above their entry prices.
Beyond technical levels, external catalysts may influence XRP's direction. The Senate scheduled a procedural vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act for September 15, with a cloture motion on H.R. 3633 set to ripen at 2:15 p.m. ET. The final draft reflected 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats. The legislation is separate from existing regulatory guidance, as the SEC and CFTC already designated XRP as a digital commodity in March, though that interpretation created no new legal obligations.
Market observers will watch whether the congressional action signals progress on broader U.S. digital-commodity trading frameworks, potentially affecting investor expectations beyond XRP's immediate price dynamics.
