XRP is trading near $1.29 as its derivatives market loses momentum and selling pressure persists. The cryptocurrency's $2.77 billion futures open interest has declined 1.32% over the preceding 24 hours, with CME and Binance accounting for roughly 35.6% of reported contracts.
Technical analysis across multiple timeframes shows challenging conditions for buyers. On the hourly chart, XRP is consolidating between approximately $1.29 and $1.305, with repeated attempts to reclaim the $1.30 level lacking sufficient trading volume. The four-hour chart reveals a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with resistance persisting beneath $1.35. On the daily chart, XRP has retreated from an earlier advance toward $1.657, with the $1.27 region representing the nearest significant support and $1.248 to $1.25 forming a deeper defensive zone.
Moving averages present a predominantly bearish picture. XRP trades beneath its 10-period exponential moving average at $1.3446, 20-period exponential moving average at $1.3828, and 50-period simple moving average at $1.4148. Eleven of 15 tracked moving averages register negative signals. However, the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages remain beneath the current price at $1.2764 and $1.2795 respectively, potentially offering support.
Oscillator readings suggest the market may be oversold. The relative strength index stands at 34.65, Stochastic registers 9.04, and Williams percent range sits at minus 91.85, consistent with oversold conditions. Of 11 tracked oscillators, eight remain neutral, two register positive signals, and one favors sellers.
In the derivatives market, Binance's estimated leverage ratio has retreated toward 0.17 after approaching 0.23 in late September, indicating cooling speculative exposure. The taker buy/sell ratio stands at 0.883, reflecting more aggressive selling than buying among market participants executing immediate transactions. The trading-volume put/call ratio recently climbed above 1.0, showing greater activity in bearish puts than bullish calls.
Prediction market traders are pricing in downside risk. On Polymarket, traders assign a 50% implied probability to XRP touching $1.20 before November ends, making it the highest-probability unresolved price target. The same platform prices an XRP move to $1.60 at 10% probability and a move to $2.00 at just 2% probability. On Kalshi, the October high-price market displays a forecast level of $1.50, with a 16% implied probability assigned to XRP climbing above $1.60 before month end.
