XRP gained 39% since August 18, trading at $1.396 on August 29, though remaining about 8% below its August 23 peak of $1.520. On-chain data suggests derivatives activity, rather than spot market accumulation, fueled the recent price movement.
Leverage Positions Drive the Rally
Funding rates for XRP averaged 0.006 over the recent period, well above quarterly baselines, while the estimated leverage ratio climbed to 0.193, approaching the six-month maximum of 0.213. Long liquidations averaged $4.34 million weekly, representing a 222% week-over-week increase. A single session on August 22 recorded $25.7 million in long liquidations, the largest liquidation day in the prior six months.
Binance open interest for XRP peaked near $558 million before easing to $483 million. Funding rates have begun cooling, dropping from 0.010 to 0.002 across three sessions, while open interest fell 13% from its peak.
Exchange Supply Remains Locked
Exchange activity on Binance tells a different story. Inflows averaged 136,319 XRP weekly while outflows averaged 298,660 XRP—both representing sharp declines from typical activity levels. Deposit addresses on Binance fell to 45, a 91% decline versus the quarterly baseline.
The Binance reserve barely moved, increasing just 0.04% week over week to $2.618 billion. This stability suggests holders are retaining coins rather than preparing to sell.
Network Activity Expands
Total XRP transactions rose to 2.93 million daily, up 97% versus the quarterly average and near six-month highs, despite reduced exchange-bound transfers. Network Value to Transactions (NVT) climbed 44% week over week alongside the activity increase.
Potential Scenarios Ahead
According to historical patterns, this market structure typically precedes one of two outcomes: base-building after positioning normalizes, or faster retracement if exchange reserves begin climbing. Price action near identified support levels may determine which scenario unfolds in coming sessions.
