Investors monitoring stocks and Bitcoin for the next major market peak are turning attention to US housing data as a potential leading indicator. Macro analyst Jason Pizzino has developed a thesis based on an 18-year property cycle derived from roughly 220 years of US sales data, positioning the current housing market for a peak in 2025–2026 with a possible trough around 2029–30.
Recent housing metrics align with cycle predictions. US home prices rose 1.5% year-on-year in June but have fallen in real terms for 13 consecutive months. July new-home sales dropped 10.5%, with the median price falling to $393,800—its lowest in five years. Builder confidence currently sits at 35, well below the neutral threshold of 50.
Housing as a Stock Market Signal
Pizzino identifies homebuilder D.R. Horton as a key indicator. The company peaked before the broader market during the last housing cycle, and its late-2024 peak using the same pattern suggests a possible stock-market top around late 2026 or early 2027. D.R. Horton closed Friday at $142.75, with Pizzino noting that a break below roughly $130 would strengthen the case for the cycle thesis.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.60 on Friday, approximately 1% below its August 13 record. Strong August jobs data pushed market odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to around 60%.
Bitcoin and Credit Conditions
Bitcoin trades near $79,700, up sharply from its July low around $57,700, and has reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Pizzino suggests Bitcoin could rally further, with a rough scenario reaching about $120,000 from the July low, though he sees $180,000 as significantly harder if credit continues to tighten.
Other analysts urge caution about treating cyclical patterns as direct trading signals. Benjamin Cowen emphasizes the importance of maintaining discipline regardless of market outlook, suggesting the cycle provides a warning zone rather than a precise expiration date. Pizzino's own recommendation centers on planning ahead: having a strategy prepared before credit conditions shift.
