Galaxy's Alex Thorn is calling a Bitcoin bottom, anchored by a technical signal he says has not failed in past cycles. In a new research note, the firm states plainly: "We believe the bottom is in."
The 50-week signal
Thorn's central piece of evidence is Bitcoin's recovery of its 50-week moving average after more than 20 weeks trading below it. According to his analysis, reclaiming that level following such a stretch has never been followed by a new price low.
The discussion comes as Bitcoin trades around $81,000 following the Federal Reserve's latest meeting.
Resilience near $80K
Thorn also points to Bitcoin's resilience around the $80,000 level, a theme the research note ties to broader market anxiety over artificial intelligence. In his view, that holding pattern is significant for the current setup.
Positioning and "the crowd is not here"
Market positioning is another pillar of the argument. Thorn describes current conditions as light, summarizing the sentiment with the phrase "the crowd is not here." He argues that this makes a long Bitcoin stance contrarian at present.
He also examines 13F filings, which he reads as showing hedge funds stepping back while sovereign entities and wealth managers step in.
Narratives, debt and digital gold
The research note touches on the shifting narrative landscape around tokenization and the basis trade, as well as corporate developments including Strategy's daily dividends, Strive and an upcoming earnings call.
On the macro side, Thorn frames the AI build-out as a "debasement machine" and discusses U.S. debt and fiscal dominance as factors supporting Bitcoin's role as digital gold. The conversation also covers AI-driven cyber attacks, hardware wallets and multisig security.
The views expressed are those of the participants and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, nor a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.
