Altcoin capitalization is testing support after weeks of fading rallies, according to trader Daan Crypto Trades. In his November 6 analysis, he identified a retest of the daily 200-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as key levels to watch. The test follows a decline from September’s local high, with successive rebounds struggling to hold.
Technical Levels in Focus
The 200-day moving average tracks the average index value across 200 daily sessions, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement marks a potential reaction level within a previous market move. Daily averages are lagging indicators, and Fibonacci levels depend on the swing highs and lows chosen. Their reported overlap makes the area technically notable, but neither indicator independently confirms renewed buying or a trend reversal.
Daan also pointed to a nearby red zone that has alternated between support and resistance over several years. Reclaiming that zone would strengthen the bullish case, he argued. Conversely, continued declines without a meaningful response would suggest that sellers retain control. Both outcomes remain conditional, and a recovery above the zone would require follow-through to establish a sustained trend.
Market Breadth Remains Weak
CoinMarketCap’s market dashboard showed Bitcoin dominance near 59.8% on November 6. Its Altcoin Season Index stood around 45 out of 100, below the confirmation threshold of 75. The index compares eligible cryptocurrencies against Bitcoin over the preceding 90 days, excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens. The reading suggests that broad altcoin outperformance has not emerged.
That distinction matters because rising capitalization alone would not establish an altcoin season. Market values can rise without most individual tokens outperforming Bitcoin, and rising valuations do not necessarily indicate equivalent new investment inflows.
Index Methodology Matters
TradingView uses different measures for the altcoin market. TOTAL2 excludes Bitcoin, while TOTAL3 removes both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Separate versions exclude stablecoins. Consequently, any numerical support target depends on the exact index selected. TradingView also warns that changes in index membership can produce jumps in aggregate capitalization, which differ from market-wide buying.
Earlier, Blockonomi reported stronger altcoin trading activity in August, but that activity did not confirm a full altcoin season. Daily closes above Daan’s marked zone, accompanied by improving breadth, would support a stronger recovery interpretation.
