Bitcoin's rebound has raised questions about whether the broader cryptocurrency market has reached its bear-market bottom. In a Sept. 28 report, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Stephen Glagola assigned a 75% probability to a turn in the digital asset cycle, using bitcoin as a proxy for the wider market.
Glagola's assessment accompanies the investment bank's resumption of coverage of crypto exchange Coinbase, which trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker COIN.
Historical Comparison and Current Decline
Bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to a June 30 closing low, according to the report. This decline occurred over approximately 8.8 months, compared with an average of roughly 12 months for the previous three bear markets. Those earlier declines averaged about 82% from peak to trough.
Glagola's analysis rests on an observed pattern in which bitcoin's major advances have been followed by prolonged declines. He notes that earlier bear markets included rallies exceeding 30% that later failed, leaving room for another reversal in the current recovery. Onchain indicators have yet to show the deep capitulation seen near previous bottoms, the report found.
Recent Price Action and Market Views
Bitcoin closed near $84,400 on Sept. 26, up about 44% from its June 30 close near $58,500. It slipped to about $83,100 on Sept. 28, down roughly 1.6% from the previous session.
Other analysts have offered differing perspectives on the market. A Sept. 24 holder cost-basis analysis identified a crossover that its author interpreted as confirmation of a bull market. Fidelity's Sept. 1 crypto market outlook said the low could already have occurred but also described the possibility of a fresh decline later in the year, noting that bitcoin's changing market structure could affect the reliability of earlier four-year cycles.
Implications for Coinbase
Glagola's market assessment supports his case for Coinbase stock. The firm resumed coverage with an Outperform rating and a $237 price target, compared with the $195.11 market price cited in the report.
Glagola expects stronger crypto trading activity to lift earnings. He also identified stablecoin revenue, derivatives, and prediction markets as potential areas for expansion beyond spot trades. Coinbase reported a record 10.3% share of crypto trading volume in the second quarter, up from 9.1% in the first. The exchange showed average USDC holdings of $20 billion across its products in the second quarter. USDC is a stablecoin designed to maintain a value of $1.
The KBW report identifies weaker stock markets and renewed Federal Reserve tightening as risks to its outlook.
