Anthropic has delayed the marketing phase of its initial public offering to mid-October, with the listing expected to conclude before November's US mid-term elections, according to sources familiar with the matter. The postponement represents a shift from the company's original timeline.
The revised schedule marks a critical test for AI valuations. Some investors estimate Anthropic could reach a valuation near $2 trillion, potentially making it one of the largest IPOs in history and providing the first major public market test of whether trillion-dollar private valuations in frontier AI can be sustained.
Prospectus and Financing Details
Anthropic was expected to submit its IPO prospectus as early as late September but those documents are now expected later in that month, according to sources speaking to Reuters. The company confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC on June 1, allowing it to proceed with the IPO after regulatory review, subject to market conditions.
Ahead of investor meetings, Anthropic is also working to close a $15 billion revolving credit facility, Reuters reported. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Citi are among the banks involved in the IPO. Anthropic and the banks declined to comment, and sources cautioned that the schedule could still change.
Valuation Questions
Anthropic's most recent private financing valued the company at roughly $965 billion, ahead of OpenAI's $852 billion valuation. Some backers are weighing a future valuation near $2 trillion against reported OpenAI targets of up to $1 trillion.
Anthropic's second-quarter revenue more than doubled to $11.6 billion compared to OpenAI's 18% rise to $6.7 billion, according to reports citing the Wall Street Journal. Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate topped $65 billion by the end of July, versus more than $40 billion for OpenAI.
Enterprise adoption also favors Anthropic. Ramp's August AI Index showed that in July, 43.5% of US companies purchased Anthropic subscriptions or tokens, compared to 39.7% for OpenAI.
Cost Pressures and Economics
The company's higher pricing could temper valuation multiples. Anthropic's pricing for its Fable 5 model is set at $10 per million input tokens and $50 per million output tokens, compared to $4 and $20 for OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, making Anthropic's prices 2.5 times higher.
Sector economics face headwinds. Gartner's "Inference Paradox" predicts that while unit token economics will improve, cost per agentic workflow will increase more than five times through 2028. Goldman Sachs analyst James Covello characterized overall spending trends as both "unprecedented and unsustainable."
Investors will have limited visibility into crucial metrics until Anthropic publishes its audited S-1 filing, including gross margins, cash flow and customer concentration, according to Morningstar.
The Public Market Question
Most value creation for frontier AI companies has already occurred in private markets. Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI achieved $100 billion valuations in an average of five years, whereas the prior generation took approximately 16 years. This suggests that going public may increasingly be an exit opportunity for early investors and employees rather than a moment when company value begins to accelerate.
Despite uncertainties around future returns, AI markets continue expanding. Gartner estimates global spending on AI models and platforms will increase 63.4% to $64.3 billion by 2026, while Goldman Sachs Research indicates global AI investments this year will exceed $1 trillion.
