BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has published an essay arguing that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market, linking the market shift directly to an expansion of the US Treasury's bond buyback program. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that buyback limits would at least double, with the cap per operation increasing from $2 billion to at least $4 billion between September 9 and November 4.
Hayes contends that purchasing older, long-dated bonds raises their prices while pushing yields down, making alternative assets such as Bitcoin more appealing to investors. He drew comparisons to previous actions taken by former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, noting that shifts in short-term debt issuance previously drew money out of the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Program and coincided with gains in Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100.
Following the August 19 buyback announcement, Bitcoin moved from around $64,000 to surpass $80,000 by August 25. Treasury yields also shifted downward before partially recovering, with the 10-year yield near 4.71% and the 30-year yield near 5.24%.
Other market factors coincided with the rally. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $517 million in net inflows on August 19, marking their highest daily total since May. Additionally, more than $4 billion in cryptocurrency short positions were forced out of the market during the price movement.
While the Treasury characterizes its buyback program as a tool for liquidity and cash management rather than monetary stimulus, Hayes noted that a large drawdown from the Treasury General Account could inject additional liquidity if used for future operations. Hayes disclosed that his fund, Maelstrom, has transitioned to maximum risk exposure in assets including Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena, and Ether.fi, and maintains a price target for Bitcoin near $126,000 by the end of 2026.
