BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes argues in a recent research essay that the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback program marks the start of a fresh bitcoin bull market. The analysis coincided with bitcoin trading above $80,000 for consecutive days and reaching an intraday high of $81,000.
Under the Treasury's upcoming operations, the maximum long-bond buyback size will double from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. This program is scheduled to run from September 9 through November 4, as part of a broader plan authorizing $38 billion for liquidity-support purchases and $25 billion for short-maturity cash-management buybacks during the quarter.
Hayes's argument suggests that purchasing older, longer-dated Treasury securities increases their prices while reducing their yields, making risk assets such as bitcoin more attractive for returns. Concurrently, the 10-year Treasury yield declined toward 4.65% and the 30-year yield moved closer to 5.20% around the announcement. Bitcoin's recent upward movement has also coincided with approximately $517 million in net inflows to bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Reflecting his market outlook, Hayes stated that his firm Maelstrom is currently positioned at maximum risk with heavy exposure to assets including bitcoin, ether, ENA, and ETHFI. He noted that sovereign balance-sheet management continues to serve as a dominant driver for bitcoin's trajectory.
Hayes distinguishes Treasury buybacks from Federal Reserve quantitative easing, emphasizing that buybacks are officially a debt-management tool designed to improve market liquidity and reduce borrowing costs rather than directly inject new money into the financial system. Around the same period, the New York Fed conducted about $10 billion in reserve management purchases, while the Treasury General Account held approximately $940 billion, with year-end projections near $850 billion.
