Research firm Bernstein has identified 2029 as the year Bitcoin could reach $300,000 under its base-case forecast. The projection was detailed in an August 26 client note led by Gautam Chhugani, senior digital assets analyst at the firm.
According to Bernstein's roadmap, Bitcoin is expected to recover to approximately $125,000 by the end of 2026, rise to $150,000 by mid-2027, and achieve a cycle peak near $300,000 in 2029. The firm also maintains a more bullish scenario projecting $200,000 by mid-2027 and up to $500,000 before the end of the decade, alongside a long-term target of $1 million by 2033.
Institutional Ownership and ETFs
The analysts point to growing institutional ownership as a primary driver behind the forecast. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury buyers have established a more stable holder base. Bernstein noted that ETF outflows during recent market corrections remained below 5%, indicating that regulated investors are less prone to panic selling than participants in prior cycles.
Additionally, long-term holders who have not moved their coins for over a year currently control roughly 60% of the circulating supply. Continued accumulation by corporate buyers and ongoing purchases by Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, were also cited as important sources of demand during periods of market weakness.
Macroeconomic Factors and Market Resilience
Another pillar of the firm's thesis involves rising concerns over government debt and currency debasement. The note highlighted U.S. sovereign debt reaching $40 trillion alongside rising interest expenses, which could pressure policymakers to tolerate higher inflation. Bernstein expects fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin to gain attractiveness for long-term investors under these conditions.
Despite a market downturn following an October 2025 peak around $126,000, Bernstein stated that Bitcoin's store-of-value thesis remains intact. The firm noted that the current correction has been significantly milder than historical bear markets, which typically featured drawdowns between 75% and 90%. Furthermore, the analysts addressed quantum-computing concerns, describing the threat as manageable and estimating the industry has a three-to-five-year window to apply necessary security upgrades.
