Bitcoin traded at $86,757 on Friday, marking a 3% increase over 24 hours and a 2% gain for the week, according to CoinGecko data. The movement follows an inflation reading on Wednesday where August core PCE came in at 3.0%, compared to expectations of 3.3%.
The data shifted expectations around Federal Reserve interest rates. CME's FedWatch tool put the odds of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at its October 28 meeting at 74%, up from 35.8% the prior week. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams stated there was no need for urgency following September's hike, while Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted that policymakers require more time and that adjustments should follow incoming data.
Labor market reports presented a mixed picture during the week. Jobless claims fell to 197,000 for the week ending September 26, and continuing claims dropped to 1.7 million, reaching their lowest level since March 2023. ADP private payrolls increased by 90,000. However, Friday's official Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September against forecasts of roughly 90,000, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. July and August figures were also revised down by a combined 60,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $6.34 billion in inflows during the third quarter, including $2.65 billion in September, according to SoSoValue data, bringing net assets to $109.3 billion. Despite the third-quarter recovery—following outflows of $4.97 billion in the second quarter and $490 million in the first quarter—net inflows for 2026 remain under $1 billion.
Analysts offered varied perspectives on market positioning and macroeconomic pressures. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev noted that futures open interest was down about 12% from its September 22 peak, and options markets showed protection near $80,000 alongside calls ranging from $89,000 to $92,000. Stephen Wundke of Algoz pointed out that October and November have historically been strong months for Bitcoin, though high 10-year Treasury yields and potential future rate hikes remain key variables for the market.
