Bitcoin's recent price correction has prompted analysts to reference a $74,500 level as a potential support point, according to analysis published by Cryptoquant on October 9.
The analysis, contributed by MAC_D, examined the cryptocurrency's decline from $87,027 on October 5 to $80,404 on October 9—a drop of approximately 7.61%. The contributor compared this pullback to historical drawdowns across five previous bitcoin bull market cycles.
Historical Drawdown Patterns
The study found average drawdowns varied significantly across cycles: 18.41% in 2010-2011, 21.71% in 2011-2013, 10.93% in 2015-2017, 19.39% in 2018-2021, and 7.58% in 2022-2025. The overall average across the five cycles was 14.39%.
Applying the 14.39% historical benchmark to the October 5 high of $87,027 produced the $74,500 reference level. Reaching that point would represent approximately 7.34% additional decline from the October 9 low.
Proposed Buying Strategy
MAC_D suggested accumulating positions at two levels if selling continues: around $80,000 and larger commitments between $74,000 and $75,000, which correspond to approximately 13.82% to 14.97% below the October 5 high.
Market Context
The analysis noted moderating volatility patterns over time in bitcoin's bull cycles. Cryptoquant's Bull Score, which combines 10 indicators tracking demand, holder profitability, network activity, and liquidity, rose from 30 to 80 in August, suggesting underlying market strength despite the recent pullback.
Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju suggested in September that growing institutional ownership could result in smaller cycle gains and shallower losses compared to earlier market phases.
