Bitcoin and Ethereum reached multi-month highs this week, driven by expectations of steady Federal Reserve rates and institutional capital inflows. However, traders on prediction markets remain cautious about aggressive upside moves through 2026.
Bitcoin rose 4.62% over 24 hours to $80,861, while Ethereum gained 4.85% to $2,501, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. The rally followed reports on potential resolution in Iran and comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggesting the central bank could hold rates steady.
Weak labor data reinforced the move. The ADP reported that US private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, falling short of expectations near 47,000 and marking the weakest increase since January. Odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell to 50% from as high as 70%.
Institutional demand contributed to the rally. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew approximately $101.1 million in net inflows, led by the iShares Bitcoin Trust.
Traders Price Near-Term Moves, Not Record Highs
Polymarket traders adjusted odds more aggressively for near-term price levels than distant targets. Bitcoin's $85,000 contract jumped to 81%, while odds of a drop to $70,000 fell to 48%. Ethereum's $2,750 contract climbed to 75%, and the $3,000 level reached 54%.
Higher price targets showed minimal movement. Bitcoin contracts for $95,000, $100,000, $110,000, and $120,000 held at 44%, 32%, 20%, and 12% respectively. Ethereum's $3,500 and $4,000 contracts remained flat at 31% and 17%.
Downside exposure persists in the market. Traders still assign 72% odds that Bitcoin will revisit $75,000 and 56% odds that Ethereum will slip to $2,250, suggesting positioning remains defensive despite the recent rally.
The upcoming US jobs report may test the strength of the rate-pause trade. Current market positioning treats the move as a range adjustment rather than a resumption toward prior record highs of $126,080 for Bitcoin and $4,946 for Ethereum.
