Bitcoin trades at $83,823 as October begins, up 0.28% on the day. The cryptocurrency closed September with a 6.33% monthly gain, defying the historical "Red September" pattern and entering the month traders refer to as "Uptober," which has historically delivered strong returns for crypto assets.
October has returned an average of 19.92% for crypto investors since 2013, with a median return of 14.71% according to CoinGlass data. However, October 2023 deviated from this pattern, closing down 3.69%—only the third red October since 2013.
Technical Picture and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin's technical indicators suggest strength in the current uptrend. The Average Directional Index reads 41.5, well above the 25 threshold that confirms a real trend, with the positive directional line above the negative one, indicating buyers are driving the trend. The 50-day exponential moving average sits above the 200-day EMA, signaling an upward short-term trend. The Relative Strength Index stands at 61.8, showing bullish momentum without reaching the 70 level where profit-taking typically accelerates.
Despite these bullish signals, Bitcoin remains constrained below the $84,433 resistance level and the recent swing high of $87,354.33.
On Myriad, a prediction market, traders assign 90% odds to Bitcoin reaching $85,000 and 70% odds to hitting $87,500 in October. Only 7% of traders expect Bitcoin to set a new all-time high before 2027, a move of roughly 50% from current levels.
Macro Headwinds
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, bringing the range to 3.75%-4%. This marked the first rate hike since July 2023. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that inflation "remains elevated," and the Fed's median projection points to one additional 25-basis-point hike this year, with the next decision scheduled for October 28.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed September at 5.289% and the 30-year at 5.632%, both 52-week highs. Rising Treasury yields typically compete with non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, as investors seek higher returns in safer instruments.
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows of approximately $3.08 billion over nine consecutive days through September 29, though the streak ended September 30 with net outflows of $148.69 million. Total net assets in Bitcoin ETFs stand at over $101 billion.
October Calendar
Several economic data releases and policy events are scheduled for October that could impact Bitcoin's price trajectory: the September jobs report on October 2, FOMC minutes on October 7, CPI data on October 14, and the Federal Reserve's policy decision on October 28.
