Bitcoin is testing a critical technical level that could signal either the beginning of a sustained rally or continued downward pressure, according to analysis from Verified Investing chief market strategist Gareth Soloway.
The cryptocurrency has not yet broken above its prior pivot high near $82,865, with the recent rally topping out around $82,300. This leaves Bitcoin in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows—the technical definition of a downtrend—despite the recent gains.
What's Blocking Further Upside
Soloway identified two bear flag trend lines from earlier price action that, when extended forward, converge near where the current rally has stalled. He described this alignment as coincidental but notable, and cited it as the technical reason the rally has been capped for now. He emphasized this does not rule out a breakout and noted that recent price action has looked "very, very good" overall.
Conditions for a Confirmed Reversal
If Bitcoin breaks above $82,865, that alone would not guarantee a bull market, but it would mark the first higher high in the current pattern. This would open the door to watching for higher lows on pullbacks—a sign the structure could shift from downtrend toward potential uptrend. A move higher would not preclude a pullback toward $68,000, Soloway said.
The Cycle Timing Question
Soloway compared the length of the current market cycle to Bitcoin's two prior major cycles. The 2017 peak-to-bottom cycle took roughly 360 trading bars, approximately one year. The 2021 cycle length was nearly identical. The current cycle's low, by contrast, arrived at roughly 266 bars—about 100 days shorter than the prior two cycles based on his chart analysis.
This timing discrepancy could suggest Bitcoin's bottom isn't fully in yet, since it does not match the historical pattern.
Could Cycles Be Accelerating?
To explain the possibility of shortened cycles, Soloway drew a comparison to gold. The gap between gold's 1980 and 2011 bull market peaks was 31 years, while the gap between 2011 and 2026 is projected at roughly 15 years—half as long. He attributed this compression to rising money supply and growing government debt levels. If Bitcoin functions as digital gold, its cycles could naturally shorten over time as currency debasement accelerates, following the same logic.
Bitcoin's near-term direction hinges on whether it can clear the $82,865 pivot high.
