Bitcoin has closed above its 365-day moving average near $80,500 for the first time since March 2023, marking a potential shift in the cryptocurrency's longer-term market structure. The move comes after months of consolidation and clears a major supply zone that had limited Bitcoin's advance.
According to CryptoQuant analytics, the break above the 365-day average has historically preceded significant market cycles. The firm pointed to similar occurrences in 2019 and 2023 that preceded major advances, as well as periods when Bitcoin fell below the level at the end of the 2021 market peak and during the November 2025 downturn.
On-Chain Signals Align with Price Action
CryptoQuant's internal indicators had already begun signaling a shift toward an early bull-market phase by mid-August. The Bull Score Index and Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator both moved into positive territory weeks before Bitcoin's latest price move, with the current price action now aligning with those earlier signals.
Supply Zones and Resistance Levels
Bitcoin has cleared a major supply barrier between $76,000 and $81,000, largely held by long-term investors and wallets inactive for more than seven years. Many of those coins were sold earlier this year, according to CryptoQuant.
The next significant supply concentration sits between $88,000 and $90,000, where a large group of coins is held. This range aligns with the upper end of traders' realized price, making it an important level to monitor as Bitcoin moves higher.
Below current levels, support remains around the 200-day moving average near $70,600 and the recently reclaimed 365-day average. CryptoQuant cautioned that pullbacks can still occur even after a broader market-cycle signal turns positive, and market participants will watch whether Bitcoin holds above the 365-day average and approaches the $88,000 to $90,000 range.
