Bitcoin's current bull cycle could deliver threefold to fivefold returns followed by a milder bear market, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of Cryptoquant, a cryptocurrency analytics platform. His forecast links smaller market extremes to growing institutional ownership and a larger capital base.
Smaller Gains, Softer Losses
In his September 22 forecast, Ju argued that a larger market is reducing the extremes associated with earlier speculative booms. He stated: "I expect this bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market."
Ju explained that when Bitcoin was smaller and retail-dominated, hot money fueled explosive rallies and 80% crashes. Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes. "The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside," he noted.
Ju's outlook aligns with Fidelity Digital Assets' historical analysis from May 2024, which documented bitcoin's declining volatility over time. The financial firm explained that capital entering a larger market should have a smaller price impact.
Holder Profitability Shows Moderating Cycles
Ju's assessment draws on a profitability index tracking aggregate holder profitability across market cycles. Recent profitability peaks are lower than earlier cycle highs, supporting his argument that market extremes are moderating. Bitcoin remained above holders' average onchain cost basis even at this cycle's lows, according to the market-value-to-realized-value ratio.
Glassnode's September 8 analysis found that long-term holder supply is the strongest explanatory variable for volatility, accounting for nearly 19% of detrended volatility variance. Market capitalization explained approximately 3%, illustrating that market size alone offers an incomplete explanation for price stability.
Institutional Demand Reshaping Cycles
Ju identified rising realized capitalization, a halt in selling by longstanding large holders, and substantial bullish futures positions as supporting signals. He interpreted rising realized capitalization as fresh capital entering the market and reported that large futures traders built long positions near the bottom.
His analysis suggests that international institutional demand and ETF access could shape bitcoin's cycle peak. In August, Ju highlighted markets where regulated investment access remained limited and expected broader fund availability and deeper stablecoin liquidity to support broader participation.
Recent wallet data showed two smaller-holder groups shrinking by 69,494 addresses before bitcoin's recovery above $85,000. Ju remarked: "Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money."
