CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has forecast that Bitcoin's current cycle will likely deliver a 3-to-5x rally rather than the 10x-plus parabolic runs that characterized earlier market cycles. He also expects the bear market phase to be milder than previous downturns.
The shift reflects how much the cryptocurrency market has matured, Young Ju argued. A larger base of institutional buyers has dampened both the euphoric peaks and brutal drawdowns that defined Bitcoin's early years.
Evidence of Narrowing Extremes
Young Ju pointed to on-chain metrics as evidence for his thesis. The PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, shows that cycle tops and bottoms are forming at higher profitability levels than before. Notably, the MVRV indicator never fell below 1 during this cycle, meaning holders as a whole remained profitable even at local lows.
Additional factors include a rising realized cap and long-term whale holders who have stopped selling, along with futures whales building large long positions near recent lows.
"None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed," Young Ju wrote. "Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash."
He argued this trade-off would attract patient, long-horizon capital rather than speculative money.
Technical Positioning
Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average near $80,500 for the first time since March 2023, a level that previously marked key turning points in the 2019 and 2023 bull markets. CryptoQuant's research identified on-chain indicators turning bullish in mid-August, after which Bitcoin cleared the $76,000-$81,000 zone where long-term holders had been selling. The firm placed the next resistance level at $88,000 to $90,000.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $86,500, up 1.5% in 24 hours and 14% over the past week. The asset had gained more than 12% in the previous month but remained down 23% from a year earlier.
Recent Price Action
Bitcoin's recent recovery followed pressure from a failed Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and Federal Reserve rate increases. The asset had dipped to $75,000 on multiple occasions before recovering through the following week. A significant rally occurred on Monday as ETF inflows accelerated, adding roughly $7,000 to the price in under a day and pushing Bitcoin past $87,000 for the first time since late January.
Market analysts noted that a large options expiry on September 25 could introduce additional volatility, while US real yields near 2.68% remain a headwind for risk assets broadly.
